// Preface //

Just when it seemed Australia was reopening its doors, the data reveals the truth: visa approvals have suddenly tightened! The approval rate for Chinese visa applications has plummeted to levels not seen in a decade!

#01: Chinese Approval Rates Drop, Returning to Levels from 10 Years Ago

In the Australian higher education sector, international students are not only a vital part of campus culture but also a crucial force in maintaining the financial stability of universities.

China has long been one of the most important source markets for Australia's international education. For over a decade, Chinese students have been seen as symbols of a stable, high-quality, and low-risk student source.

However, the latest Department of Home Affairs data for October shows the visa approval rate for Chinese international students has plummeted, reaching lows not seen in over ten years.

It almost feels as if Australia has returned to the era of strict scrutiny and sudden refusals from a decade ago.

The latest data from the Australian Department of Home Affairs shows the international student visa approval rate in October was below 75%, a significant drop from 83.6% in the same period last year, while the total number of applications increased by over 15%, likely due to expectations of policy relaxation.

The change is particularly stark for Chinese students: the approval rate was still as high as 93% last October, but this year it has fallen below 85%, marking the second-lowest level for this period since 2010.

Over the past decade, the approval rate for Chinese students has rarely fallen below 90%. This sudden drop is not only abrupt but also strikingly conspicuous.

Moreover, this change occurs against a seemingly contradictory backdrop. Just in mid-October, Education Minister Jason Clare announced a relaxation of international student quotas, allowing universities to increase international student intakes and forecasting an additional 25,000 places next year.

Thirty-one universities have already been approved for increased intakes. The sector and institutions were preparing for a resurgence of Chinese students next year: course schedules, budget planning, and campus resources were all being arranged accordingly.

Former immigration official Abul Rizvi said he "hadn't seen approval rates drop so sharply in a long time" and noted it was difficult to judge whether this was a random data fluctuation or some kind of unannounced policy adjustment.

He warned that if this trend continues into November, universities would face financial trouble because they have already set revenue expectations based on the government's call for increased intakes, only to now encounter a "suddenly raised threshold."

"If the situation in October continues, universities will face financial difficulties. Because the government asked them to prepare, they are all preparing for a large influx of international students and a significant increase in tuition revenue."

Particularly for the Chinese market, which international education institutions generally considered to have high approval stability, now facing a significant rise in refusal rates, it makes "the most stable market unstable," almost recreating the restrictive environment of a decade ago.

Meanwhile, the approval rate for Indian students also dropped from 64% to 52%, indicating a tightening of scrutiny across different source countries.

However, by comparison, China's change is considered more indicative: for over a decade it was almost the most stable source in the system, and now it has also begun to slide sharply, making the industry feel that a danger signal has been released.

More intriguingly, the approval rate for students from Nepal, the third-largest source, remained stable at around 80%. This indicates the tightening is not synchronized across all markets but involves stronger screening for certain countries, which also supports Rizvi's observation of signs of "internal policy divergence."

#02: Chinese Passport Downgraded, Visa Applications Become Harder

It is worth noting that in October this year, the Australian Department of Home Affairs updated visa application information, effectively "downgrading" the Chinese passport.

The risk assessment level for Chinese passport holders applying for student visas was dropped from Level 1 to Level 2, effective immediately.

This means that Chinese students, considered low-risk for the past nine years, have overnight "returned to nine years ago," with the visa scrutiny threshold raised.

The Australian Department of Home Affairs sets an "Evidence Level" for each country and education provider to measure the overall risk of student visa applications.

For the past nine years, the Chinese passport has been in Level 1. This meant that when applying to Level 1, Level 2, or even Level 3 institutions, providing English test scores and financial proof was generally not mandatory in most cases.

However, now being Level 2 means Chinese students applying for Vocational Education and Training (VET) courses at Level 3 institutions must provide complete language and financial proof. This is the biggest impact of this adjustment.

For VET providers, this means applications that might have passed before now must have complete documentation, or the visa is likely to be refused.

Even when applying to Level 1 or Level 2 institutions, the overall risk profile for Chinese students has risen, and institutional scrutiny will also become stricter.

For students planning to study for undergraduate or postgraduate degrees in Australia, the impact is relatively smaller. As long as complete materials are prepared in advance, the visa success rate remains relatively high. However, the application process will become more rigorous and standardized than before, and processing times may also slow down.

At the same time, the assessment level for Indian students applying for Australian student visas was officially relaxed from Level 3 to Level 2!

Due to concerns about non-genuine students abusing the visa system, in 2019, the Morrison-led Coalition government classified students from India, Nepal, and Pakistan as "high-risk." Students from these countries faced stricter scrutiny when applying for visas.

Specifically, these students had to demonstrate good English proficiency and sufficient financial capacity.

Affected by this policy, some Australian education providers temporarily paused accepting applications from Indian students. However, even so, student numbers surged to record levels after the pandemic.

And now, more Indian students are expected to flock to Australia.

#03: Contradictory Visa Policies Criticized as "Absurd and Unreasonable"

This structural contradiction of "enthusiastic applications, harder approvals, inconsistent standards" in the current Australian government has led Opposition shadow education minister Julian Leeser to call it "baffling and absurd."

She stated that while the government is increasing places for institutions, it is simultaneously reducing the actual number of students approved to enter, creating a self-contradiction in policy messaging.

For the Opposition, the international student system is partly seen as having potential for "pathway abuse," hence the call for stronger regulation to prevent students from using study as a backdoor. However, this argument conflicts with the scale expansion desired by the education sector, further amplifying uncertainty about future policy.

Meanwhile, what universities might worry about most is not political squabbles but the neglected core issues: student experience and the campus environment.

Leeser criticized that the government's discussions about expansion and tightening do not address the issues that truly trouble international students.

"The most perplexing thing is that the government seems to be ignoring what really matters – students' experience on campus, the quality of teaching, housing affordability, and the cost-of-living pressures students face every day."

Without clear overall immigration intake targets or a clear long-term international education strategy, universities can only bear risks amidst vague signals. This "policy inconsistency" not only weakens the attractiveness of international education but also undermines Australia's credibility and competitiveness as a study destination.

This mismatch not only hurts universities but also puts Chinese students under more subtle psychological pressure. Going to Australia is no longer as secure as it once was.

Rising refusal rates mean increased costs and also mean Australia is weakening its own advantages in the global competition for students, potentially opening opportunities for alternative destinations like South Korea, the UK, and Canada.

Finally,
Australia's international education system is undergoing a complex stress test.
The mismatch between visa approvals and enrollment expectations is putting universities in financial difficulty, while the real needs of students remain on the periphery.

 

 

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