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Early election speculation hits a fever pitch as Albanese announces Tasmania candidates, deflects WA

2024.11.12

In short: 

Anthony Albanese is moving aggressively to ready Labor for an early election campaign, flying to Tasmania to announce high-profile candidates for Braddon and Lyons.

The prime minister has also shrugged off prospects of an election clash with Western Australia's scheduled March 8 state poll.

Anthony Albanese is moving aggressively to ready Labor for a federal election campaign starting as early as January, unveiling two high-profile candidates for must-win seats in Tasmania.

The prime minister also shrugged off prospects of a clash with West Australian Premier Roger Cook's re-election bid.

On a blitz through Tasmania on Tuesday, Mr Albanese announced that Senator Anne Urquhart would step down from the federal upper house to contest the seat of Braddon, held by the Liberals with an 8 per cent margin.

At a separate media conference two hours later, he confirmed former state Labor leader Rebecca White would contest Lyons. Labor holds the seat, won in 2022 by retiring MP Brian Mitchell, with a knife-edge margin of 0.3 per cent.

The flurry of pre-campaign announcements is stoking speculation the government is increasingly reluctant to return to parliament after the summer break, which would make the next two weeks the final sitting period of this term.

An early election, which cannot be held much later than May 17 for practical reasons, raises the prospect of a concurrent campaign with the West Australian state poll scheduled for March 8.

Premier Cook on Monday told a business breakfast in Perth that he was seeking legal advice on whether an election date change is possible should Mr Albanese trigger a dual campaign.

"It’s important that we make sure we are ready for any contingency or any scenario," he told reporters on Tuesday, noting that the prime minister had not informed him of any election plans.

“The prime minister and I talk about a range of issues and one of the issues was about the timing of the election.

“If there is any clash or reason to change there's obviously flexibility with the legislation."

Dutton calls on Albanese to 'be open' about election plans

Mr Albanese told reporters in Tasmania that he had spoken to Mr Cook about the issue and said an election would be called "April or before".

"It's the media that seems to be obsessed by the date of elections. I have read the election would be in August, September, November, December 7, [which has as an option] probably passed now," he said.

"The election, as I said the whole way through, will be in 2025."

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Opposition Leader Peter Dutton said any move by Mr Albanese to hold an election in March or earlier would be at odds with his previous pledges.

"If there is a secret discussion or deal going on with the WA premier, I think the prime minister should be open about it because he has looked the Australian public in the eye before and said he would go full term," Mr Dutton said.

"If the prime minister is proposing to have an early election which requires the March date in WA to be moved … he needs to explain why."

Political insiders on both sides say they are ready for an election at any moment, but that the next genuine window for Mr Albanese to trigger a campaign opens shortly after Australia Day.

Factors that may influence his decision include the first Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate meeting on February 18 and the one after on April 1, whether to cancel the budget scheduled for March 28, and the timing of the Easter/Anzac Day school holidays.

Albanese touts electoral reform

A five-week election campaign called in late January or early February means the federal election would take place simultaneously with West Australia, where Labor is desperate to retain seats it won at the 2022 election. 

Waiting until after the state poll could mean cancelling the budget for an April 12 date.

In another sign Labor is rapidly clearing the decks to keep its options open, Mr Albanese urged parliament to support reforms that would reduce the electoral influence of very wealthy individuals.

"We are keen on electoral reform because a system whereby an individual can spend over $100 million, as we've seen occur in the last two elections, is one that I think undermines democracy," he said.

While the changes would not take effect until the election after the next, Mr Albanese said Special Minister of State Don Farrell would "have more to say about that in coming weeks".

Critics of current electoral laws point to the outsized influence of figures such as Simon Holmes à Court, founder of Climate 200, a group that helps fund teal independents, and Queensland mining billionaire Clive Palmer.

Mr Palmer spent almost $120 million on blanket campaigns during the 2022 federal election, resulting in the election of a single parliamentarian, Ralph Babet.

The Victorian United Australia Party senator triggered widespread condemnation this week after posting on social media inflammatory and derogatory slurs aimed at people of colour, people with disability and the LGBT+ community.

Labor is eager to crack down on such funding, with national secretary Paul Erickson telling a parliamentary committee that a lack of caps has allowed "extremely high-net-worth individuals, groups, and networks to distort the political conversation with levels of advertising that were previously inconceivable".

"The pestilential quality of some of these campaigns is eroding trust and confidence in our elections and in the democratic system," he said.